![]() The researchers argue that conflict will derive from economic uncertainties resulting from temperature-related yield declines in societies heavily dependent upon agriculture. By the year 2030, based on averaged data from the 18 climate models used, this will translate to approximately a 54% increase in armed conflict incidence in the region. In numerical terms, a 1% increase in temperature leads to a 4.5% increase in civil war in the same year and a 0.9% increase in the following year. Burke and his colleagues from several American universities have published what they say is “the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa”.įrom a regression analysis of historical data, the authors find that there is a relationship between past internal conflict in sub-Saharan Africa and variations in temperature (but not precipitation) and that there are “substantial increases in conflict during warmer years”. His thinking reflects findings to date that the incidence of conflict is likely to be higher in years of lower precipitation. The assumption was that water scarcity from changed rainfall patterns resulting from climate change contributed to this conflict. In 2007, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon described the conflict in Sudan’s Darfur region as the world’s first climate change conflict. ![]() The report claims that temperature rises in Africa have coincided with significant increases in the likelihood of war.īut not everyone agrees that there is a direct link between climate change and increased conflict, in an ongoing academic debate that goes all the way to the top of the United Nations. Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa is the title of a new research paper tabled in the Proceedings of the United States National Academy of Sciences. Does climate change cause conflict? It really depends on who you ask.
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